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Alumina production capacity increased rapidly, 2017 is still in short supply

Author:Ying Wei AluminiumTime:2017-05-22 16:47:45

  Production capacity of alumina in our country has been in a state of rapid growth in recent years, 2012-2015 compound annual growth rate of 9.45%, while the overall growth rate of -0.64% in other parts of the world, China accounted for the production of alumina rising in the world. Data show that in 2016, China's alumina production was 60 million 990 thousand tons, accounting for 53% of the global total output. As of March 2017, the country's total production capacity of 77 million 130 thousand tons, an increase of 8.73%, 70 million 710 thousand tons of construction capacity, an increase of 24.71%.

  At the beginning of 2016, a total of 10 million 700 thousand tons of alumina production capacity shut down because of low prices, with alumina prices rebound, alumina enterprises gradually began to resume production, restart the total capacity of 7 million 600 thousand tons, the new capacity, total 4 million 600 thousand tons of production capacity, so rough calculations a net increase of 1 million 500 thousand tons. With the price of alumina rising from 2000 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 3000 yuan / ton, the operating rate has risen from 82% to more than 90%.

  China's alumina imports in 2016 fell 1 million 360 thousand tons, a net increase of 1 million 350 thousand tons of domestic production, so the overall supply remained unchanged, is about 63 million tons, according to the prospective industry research institute "alumina industry sales demand and investment analysis report" data show that in 2016 the total demand of alumina in 2015 compared to an increase of about 2 million 580 thousand tons, about 64 million 20 thousand tons, the supply gap of 1 million 20 thousand tons.

  On the whole, China although the higher degree of dependence on foreign bauxite ore, but starting from the global scope is not scarce, according to statistics, in 2016 the global supply and demand balance in bauxite bauxite, 2017 global supply is ample, and will not appear supply gap. But from the domestic point of view, the scarcity of aluminum resources, bauxite resources for enterprises, profitability will be stronger.

Alumina supply in 2017:

  1) new capacity of about 6 million 150 thousand tons, and these new production capacity about time in the two quarter, the short-term still can not meet the supply gap;

  2) the current operating rate and capacity utilization have reached a record high of nearly 6 years, and the space to increase production has been very limited by increasing the operating rate;

  3) 7 million 600 thousand tons of production capacity has been shut down, the future production of limited space, coupled with the environmental effects of factors, such as the recent "Tianjin and surrounding areas in 2017 air pollution prevention and control work plan" draft in Shandong, Henan and Shanxi to cut 3, alumina production capacity of the enterprise 50%, corresponding to more than 30% of the domestic production capacity, if strictly according to this, a huge shortage of supply will inevitably, because of environmental pressure, the relevant production or new capacity put face greater resistance;

  4) imports of alumina, due to the high domestic alumina prices, is expected to import alumina from 3 million tons in 2016 to 3 million 500 thousand tons.

  And alumina demand, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to push forward, is expected to be in accordance with the expected plan to launch, 2017 new electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 3 million 100 thousand tons, corresponding to 6 million tons of alumina demand increments. On the whole, the foresight Industry Research Institute expects that alumina will remain in short supply in 2017, with a shortfall of about 1%, especially before new capacity is put into operation.